The job approval rating for President Joe Biden is 19 points below average, and his scores for managing the economy and immigration are at a career low. Biden faces formidable obstacles in his reelection campaign, including a record proportion of Americans who believe their lives have become worse under his administration, three-quarters who believe he is too old for another term, and Donald Trump looking better in hindsight.

Trump and Joe Biden

The most for any president since 1986, 44% of respondents in the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll think their financial situation has gotten worse under Biden's administration. Just 37% of people think his work performance is up to par, while 56% don't. 30% of voters disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy.
Biden's support for managing immigration at the border between the United States and Mexico is considerably lower, at 23%. In terms of sentiment intensity, 20% strongly approve and 45% strongly disapprove of his total body of work. The 74% who believe he is too old to serve a second term has increased by 6 percentage points since May. In this poll conducted for ABC by Langer Research Associates, opinions that Trump is too old are also increased, but only to 50%.
Given the GOP infighting that led to the budget standoff, 40% of people say they would mostly blame Vice President Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress if a government shutdown occurs at the end of the month.

Trump edges out Biden 51-42 in head-to-head matchup: POLL

Trump

Trump, on the other hand, has changed with time. 38% of people disapproved of his job as president when he grudgingly left office in January 2021, which is around the same as Biden's rating right now. But right now, reflecting on his tenure as president, 48% of respondents said they were satisfied with Trump's job performance. Almost the same number, 49%, now disapprove, compared to 60% when he departed the White House.

Biden comparisons could play a role. A whopping 75% of Americans believe that, looking back, they like of Trump, compared to the 56% of Americans who disapprove of Biden's performance in office.

It's also interesting to note that Trump's post-election job approval rating is divided evenly, despite the fact that most Americans continue to disagree with his claim that the 2020 election was rigged against him. Instead, 60% of Americans believe that Biden won in a genuine manner, while another 12% are undecided, and 29% disagree.

Election

These opinions influence early voting preferences. Amazingly, only 33% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents support Biden as the party's nominee in 2024, while 62% of Democrats and independents agree. The number of people who would prefer a different candidate is large, but it is also consistent with previous outcomes (56 to 58%) during the last year.

Who would replace Biden is a matter of debate. In an open-ended question, 8% of respondents say they prefer Kamala Harris, 8% say they prefer Bernie Sanders, and 7% say they prefer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Simply "someone else" ranks at 20%.

Trump enjoys much greater support within his own party; 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents endorse him for the GOP nomination, a number that is consistent with earlier polling and places him considerably ahead of his rivals. 15% of voters endorse Ron DeSantis, compared to 25% in May (using a somewhat different questioning strategy). The remainder are all single digits.

In a hypothetical contest in November 2024, Trump would receive 51% of the vote while Biden would receive 42%. These numbers represent numerical increases of 3 points for Trump and decreases of 2 points for Biden from an ABC/Post poll conducted in February.

Even less has changed since the most recent ABC/Post survey, which was conducted in May and found that the race was 49-42% (again, using a different but related question phrasing), was conducted. However, with Trump's support edging over 50% --and other polls indicating a closer race, a detailed examination is necessary.

Factors

There could be a number of things at work. Poor performance ratings for Biden, the amount of economic unhappiness, the immigration situation, and age-related concerns are all unquestionably pertinent. All of them have received significant recent news coverage, which has centred public conversation on criticism of the president. Trump, on the other hand, has utilised his criminal indictments to support his followers by alleging political persecution and benefits from favourable coverage of his position as the GOP front-runner.

The order of the questions can matter. This poll featured questions about the performances of Biden and Trump, the state of the economy, and a few other subjects (such as aid for the Ukraine, abortion rights, and a government shutdown) before asking about candidate preferences, as is customary for ABC/Post polls at this still-early stage of an election campaign. This is due to the fact that these issues are more pertinent than candidate support in a distant election. Many of the results are against Biden, thus it stands to reason that his support for 2024 is lacking. These opinions are valid, consistently negative in recent polls, and plainly indicate Biden's issues going forward.

Sending messages is another potential cause. The best way to view a hypothetical vote-preference question 14 months before an election is as a chance for the public to express its likes and dislikes of the candidates. There are many questions regarding Biden's suitability for a second term and he is not very popular; wherever he ends up in more than a year, many Americans are now using the chance to voice their unhappiness.

According to one survey, 18% of those who believe the U.S. Constitution should forbid Trump from running for president again in 2024 also back him over Biden. Such individuals appear to be expressing their dislike of Biden rather than their support for Trump.

This survey was carried out using the well-established sample strategy of the ABC/Post poll. Results by demographic are typical. Partisan preferences are also expressed; 42% of respondents identify as independents, 25% as Democrats, and 25% as Republicans. In line with previous years, 41% of voters are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, while 45% are Republicans or independents who lean Republican.

Additionally, those polled who claim to have cast a ballot in the 2020 election indicate they preferred Biden over Trump by a margin of 50-46%, which is extremely near to the final result of 51-47%.

Group

The results of the groups Trump-Biden are nearly identical (52-42%) among those who claim to be registered to vote. Even if there is more than a year to register, an activity on which political campaigns spend a lot of time and money, some polling experts concentrate on this group. At this point, we concentrate on the broader populace in order to provide all adults a voice, irrespective of their present registration status.

Despite the public's overall dissatisfaction with Biden, several group-level findings are noteworthy. Members of racial and ethnic minority groups back Biden only 50% (the same as in May), while Trump has increased his support in this group from 32 to 39 to 43% in the most recent ABC/Post polls. Trump-Biden's stunning 50–44% lead over Biden among Hispanics, albeit with a narrow margin,

Trump has a somewhat substantial 53-38% advantage among voters between the ages of 18 and 35. However, it is basically the same as it was in May, and in February, Trump had a numerical advantage among this category of voters (albeit not by much), 50-43%.

Trump currently leads Biden 61-34% among men, up 7 points from May. Trump's popularity among non-college-educated white men, a key constituency for him, increased by 15 points to 79%.

64-30% of Americans still disagree with the American Supreme Court's decision terminating the right to an abortion. By a margin of 57-35%, those who disagree with the decision favour Biden to Trump. A considerably broader 81-16% of those in favour of the decision support Trump.

The preferences of non-Hispanic white Catholics, a frequently disputed demographic, have varied. It was 63-33% in favour of Trump over Biden in February; it was a dead heat in May; now it is once again 66-32%.

96% of those who said they supported Trump in the 2020 election still do. Biden, though, keeps 88% fewer of his 2020 backers. From the remaining group, 7% now support Trump (up from 3% in February), with the remaining group being either uncertain, supporting a different candidate, or not planning to vote.

Trump presently leads among those who claim they did not cast a ballot in the 2020 election, 57-32%. In May, this was 52-31%.

16% of the 62% of Democrats and independents who are against Biden for the nomination said they would support Trump instead of Biden.

Strong correlations exist between economic feeling and candidate preferences. Trump has an 84-12% advantage among the 44% of Americans who believe their financial situation has gotten worse under Biden's presidency. It switches to 66-25%, Biden-Trump, among those who are in the same financial situation as them—not worse, but also not better off—and is similar among the relatively few who are better off.

The economy

Ratings of the national economy, which 74% of respondents evaluate poorly overall with strong political divisions, also distinguish the outcomes of candidate preferences. The poll looked into this mood in more detail and discovered two big irritants: food prices, which were adversely regarded by 91% (as not so good or poor), and petrol and energy prices, which were negatively rated by 87%.

No, not all evaluations are positive. 75 percent of people have a poor opinion of average American household income. The unemployment rate is substantially lower at 57%, but it's still high given the depressing general feeling.